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  • Assessment of the March-May 2006 Flood Wave

    Monday, 05 July 2010 14:29
  • Use of the Riparian Lands of the Danube River in the Metropolitan Area of the City of Smederevo

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Projects Assessment of the March-May 2006 Flood Wave
Assessment of the March-May 2006 Flood Wave PDF Print E-mail

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Client: Serbian Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Water Management/ Water Directorate
Chief Analyst: Vladislava Bartoš-Divac, CE
Analysts: Branka Miloradović, CE; Zoran Knežević, CE; Ljiljana Marjanović, CE; Aleksandra Ilić,  CE

In the spring of 2006, several countries in the Danube River Basin were seriously threatened by high flows of the Danube River and its tributaries. The flood wave formed as a result of several heavy rainfalls, compounded by rapid melting of above-average snow accumulations.

 
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River stages in excess of historic maxima were recorded on the Danube River upstream from the Serbian state border. Record stages registered in 1965 between the Hungarian border and the mouth of the Tisa were not exceeded. However, due to simultaneous high flows of the Danube, Tisa and Sava rivers, the situation was far more serious downstream (i.e., the highest stages previously recorded in 1965 and 1981 were surpassed). An extreme flood wave was also recorded on the Tisa River, which resulted in extreme stages along its lower course due to simultaneous high flows of the Danube.

The statistical significance of this flood wave at a number of monitoring stations was assessed against maximum annual discharge probability distribution curves for different return periods (1931-2006 data). With the exception of the monitoring station at Bogojevo, the 2006 maximum discharge probability within Serbia declined downstream. At Bezdan, the maximum probability was slightly less than 0.90%, at Slankamen it was 0.80%, and at Pančevo (Smederevo) and Veliko Gradište it was 0.75%.

 

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In 2006, floods enveloped 240,000 hа of farmland in Serbia, with rivers contributing about half of the water volume. In 30 municipalities, some 2000 houses in unprotected areas were flooded. Civil defense evacuated 1000 residents. Water management organizations estimated flood defense costs at 10 million €. Flood damage was roughly estimated at 40 million €.



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The conclusions drawn from this event were that the following measures were imperative for efficient flood protection:

  1. Reconstruction of the entire system of flood defenses and its maintenance based on adopted criteria (potential use of necessary retention ponds and more stringent criteria based on an economic analysis of potential damage);
  2. Timely exchange of reliable information and forecasts (upgrading of the monitoring network; development of a data transmission, validation and archiving system; updating of discharge forecast models for the points of entry of the Danube, Sava and Tisa rivers into Serbia; and development of an unsteady flow model of the Danube, Tisa and Sava rivers within Serbia);
  3. Provision of appropriate background information (flood risk maps; classification of riparian lands) and raising of the population’s awareness and readiness levels.

 

 

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